Robert Beaglehole, professor emeritus at University of Auckland
A new study led by three public health experts reported that adult smoking rates in New Zealand have declined at an unprecedented pace, with tobacco harm reduction identified as a key factor.
The study, published in June 2026 in the peer-reviewed medical journal The Lancet Regional Health, said that adult smoking in New Zealand began falling sharply in 2018, with the annual decline accelerating fivefold from 3.5% to 17.9% between 2018 and 2023.
“Joinpoint regression analysis confirms this period as a statistically significant acceleration in decline compared with earlier trends,” according to the study “New Zealand’s accelerating smoking decline: lessons for tobacco harm reduction.”
The study was authored by Robert Beaglehole and Ruth Bonita, professors emeriti at University of Auckland, along with Ben Youdan, an independent health advisor.
The researchers attributed the shift to developments around 2019, including the increase in vape use and the Ministry of Health’s endorsement of vapes as a less harmful alternative to smoking and a tool for quitting cigarettes.
Led by Beaglehole, a former World Health Organization (WHO) director, the researchers observed that the surge in vaping coincided with the sharp decline in smoking.
The researchers also emphasized the distinction between vaping and combustible cigarettes, noting that nicotine itself is not the driver of smoking-related diseases. They said that public health policies should focus on reducing exposure to combustible tobacco, which carries the greatest burden of harm.
The study examined New Zealand’s tobacco control measures over the past 20 years. After ratifying the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) in 2004, the country introduced smoke-free public spaces, graphic health warnings, and higher tobacco taxes. While smoking rates declined during this period, the annual pace of reduction was slower than the sharp drop seen after 2018.
The authors noted that if earlier trends had continued, New Zealand would have fallen short of its ‘Smokefree 2025’ target by several decades.
Today, fewer than 7% of New Zealanders smoke, with the remaining population largely older adults with long-established habits, particularly among the Māori. The study found that Māori smoking rates halved within six years.
The findings suggest that traditional tobacco control policies may be strengthened by incorporating harm reduction strategies to further reduce smoking prevalence.
“Maintaining a clear focus on reducing harm from combustible tobacco will be critical to sustaining progress as smoking prevalence declines,” the authors said. “Further progress will require compassionate and targeted equity-focused interventions and a coherent regulatory framework that covers all nicotine products in proportion to the risks they incur.”
